Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
