Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
